One day diving nearly 500 basis points renminbi devaluation of the U-turn?

By the U.S. to dramatically reduce the impact of the RMB, the yuan against the dollar yesterday on the inquiry system, a substantial 495 basis points in diving, the largest decline since the foreign exchange reform. Yesterday the central bank data showed on December 1 of RMB against the U.S. dollar 6.8505 U.S. newspaper, the department in August to its lowest level in the previous session sharply lower than the 156 basis points, the biggest decline for the past few months. Some experts point out that the substantial depreciation of the yuan, out of the "capital growth", the yuan is currently being ushered in a most favorable time for depreciation, as yesterday, the depreciation of the "very good, very correct." Interpretation 1: the devaluation of security is to increase Since by the end of August, the renminbi stable against the U.S. dollar exchange rate, the benchmark price within a narrow range around 6.83 fluctuations. As a result, the yuan yesterday, down 156 basis points in major U.S. and foreign exchange than analysts expected. BNP Paribas in the short-term interest rates and foreign exchange products, traders said Qiu Xiaoming, "has been a long time no devaluation of the renminbi," but last week since the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate has now signs. Last Thursday, the RMB exchange rate depreciation of the U.S. 20 basis points last Friday, the RMB exchange rate depreciation of the U.S. than in the previous 57 basis points. Qiu Xiaoming of the view that the devaluation of the yuan is the main stimulus for economic growth considerations. In the first half of this year, the yuan has risen 6.6 percent, but in the second half of Hong tune with the anti-inflation focus from security to increase the speed of the appreciation of the renminbi has obviously slowed down. Societe Generale chief economist at the Center operating funds, political commissar of the Lu said that the second half of the year so far, only appreciation of the yuan against the dollar 0.4 percent, mainly due to growth in security management have been in control of the speed of the appreciation of the yuan and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate. Central China University of Finance and Banking Research Center Director Guo Tian Yong yesterday to this reporter's interview, also said that the emergence of a moderate depreciation of the renminbi is conducive to the domestic economy. However, the adoption of the devaluation of the yuan to boost exports of the way, Tian Yong, Guo pointed out that foreign demand is declining, in this way in the current "effect will not be very good." Reading 2: depreciation is a test Earlier this month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson will attend the fifth China-US strategic economic dialogue. In this context, the yuan suddenly down, whether or not any profound meaning? Haitong Securities senior analyst macro-Yong said that the current international financial markets have stabilized, so that the management of the substantial depreciation of the yuan move, the United States should be a test. At the same time, Chen Yong said that the devaluation of the remains to be seen whether the trend, but "the continued substantial devalue the renminbi may not be." Qiu Xiaoming also of the view that the devaluation of the Renminbi will continue depends on market response, "I believe in the coming week should determine whether the trend of the formation." "Before this, the central bank sharply cut interest rates 108 basis points in the short term will not be large rate cut, growth in security tool to be transferred to the exchange rate policy." Qiu Xiaoming said. Interpretation 3: devaluation of the very good right "This is very good, very correct." Yesterday for the RMB exchange rate diving, Lu made political commissar of the evaluation of the case, he believed that "the devaluation of the Renminbi, must continue." Lu said that the political commissar, the present situation, the devaluation of the Renminbi is facing a very good opportunity to be "one of the few to seize the time, as soon as possible devaluation." Lu said the political commissar from the international factors, in the second half of the RMB revaluation does not have the basic, but "no one has to use the revaluation of the RMB Chinese pressure", such as the Sino-US strategic economic dialogue on the question of the RMB exchange rate is not the focus of "Paulson added outgoing, he talks not of the RMB exchange rate issue." In addition, domestic security and the future economic growth of the domestic economy or face anti-deflation, which also requires the devaluation of the yuan, Lu said that the political commissar, as the devaluation of the yuan would trigger a capital outflow of the problem, not a long time because of the RMB has appreciated, " Yaopao of foreign capital has been run, do not have the run of the Pao Bule. " "Exchange rate policy should take the initiative and seize the first half of next year before the favorable opportunity to continue the devaluation of go on." Another industry that the market began to feel that China's economic situation than originally expected to be severe, which may allow the central bank is expected to devalue the Renminbi. Earlier, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also said that does not rule out allowing the devaluation of the Renminbi.

CPC high-level meeting next year in China's economic transfer of the four major development signals

CPC Central Committee Political Bureau held a meeting recently, analysis of economic work next year. From the content of this meeting we can see that the growth of security, on the level, and increase vitality, weight livelihood of the people, will run through next year China's economic and social development of the entire process. The meeting made clear, to maintain stable and rapid economic development of the economic work next year as China's top priority. Behind this important decision, the CPC Central Committee show that China's economy to advance at a faster track to run a healthy determination. By the global financial crisis, China's economic development facing the uncertainties, some have been translated into a clear disadvantage. China's GDP in the years to maintain double-digit growth last year in a row since the quarter down 5. The export orders index continued to drop, has fallen in July 2005 has the lowest; previous quarter domestic orders index fell 3.7 percentage points; reflect the business activity of M1 (narrow money supply) growth rate fell to 10 at the end of 9% below the lowest in recent years. This series shows that China's current economic development of a more severe environment, in particular, to maintain stable and rapid economic growth more difficult to maintain growth is no time to lose. China has been released from measures to stimulate the economy, pay more attention to economic development potential to become more distinct characteristics. The next step will include railways, highways and airports and other major infrastructure construction to start in driving economic growth at the same time, in the long run China will promote balanced and sustained economic development. In 2009, the Chinese government will continue to be targeted at the rapid development of the situation changes, to take strong measures to expand domestic demand and the expansion of consumer demand on a more prominent position, and enhance consumer demand in China's economic growth. China National School of Administration, said Professor Zhang Xiaode, China's such a big developing country, so that the national economy has maintained steady and rapid growth, not only to cope with the international financial crisis and a strong measure of the CPC Central Committee is based on China's national conditions and the interests of the majority of the people In managing state affairs to make the strategic decision-making. The meeting also pointed out that the increase in security, expanding domestic demand, the structure of the transfer to better combine to promote the development and changes in the way of structural adjustment at home and abroad as a response to environmental change, sustainable development in the fundamental way out. "Why is it that when problems emerge in the United States, China has also been injury? Fundamental reason is that China's development means there are still problems. This requires security in the growth of a new round of regulation, the industry must focus on the restructuring and development of Adjustment, which is the practice is the fundamental way out. "Economist Wu Jinglian said. Before China introduced the measure in the top 10, is an important part of independent innovation and speed up structural adjustment. China Iron and Steel Association is responsible for the relevant people in recent days that a large number of iron and steel enterprises in the current production, production, should grasp the favorable opportunity to speed up elimination of outdated steel production pace. "This means that our economic development in the past can no longer rely on the old road. Adjustment in response to the crisis in changes in the adjustment to achieve changes in the upgrade will be next year, and for a long time the only way for China's economic development." Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Financial Li Yang, director of the Institute said. The meeting also stressed that in 2009 China will speed up reform of key areas, deepen rural reform, accelerating the financial and taxation system reform, actively and steadily push forward the reform of fees and prices, deepen financial reform and continue to push forward reform of the administrative system of state-owned enterprises Reform. Zhang Xiaode said: "This shows that no matter what the economic situation changes, we have to reform the driving force in order to increase the vitality of the pace of reform will not stop." It was noted that the market has been concerned about China's refined oil prices and fuel tax reform program were recently put on the agenda. The Chinese National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the purpose of reform is to gradually straighten out the relationship between price and give full play to the market price mechanism of energy to the basic role for the establishment of a perfect socialist market economic system to create a favorable price system Conditions. "The role of fiscal expansion even the best can only be used to avoid the economic downturn," can only help, not fitness. "Therefore, fiscal stimulus alone is far from enough, the need to adhere to push forward reform of the system." Zhang Bin, an associate researcher at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said. In the next year working arrangements for the meeting, pointed out that efforts to improve the livelihood of the people, actively expand employment, the implementation of the protection of urban and rural housing projects, improve the social security system to support the development of rural education, to strengthen public health services, develop cultural undertakings and cultural industries and improve the Low-income people the basic living security policy, earnestly safeguard the interests of the people. Only residents of revenue growth, livelihood is protected, in order to really stimulate consumption up. "However, the income distribution gap is still outstanding. Speed up to improve urban and rural residents, especially the broad masses of farmers and low-income groups in income, can not only improve their lives, but also contribute to demand the release of their potential." Of the Central University of Finance and Economics Professor Guo Tian Yong说. Economist Fan Gang believes that the current subsidies, tax reduction, improve the social security system and so on, the Chinese government has taken into consideration, but the long-term solutions also need to establish a sound distribution mechanism for economic growth more To reflect the population's disposable income growth, achieving social fairness of the distribution.