One day diving nearly 500 basis points renminbi devaluation of the U-turn?
By the U.S. to dramatically reduce the impact of the RMB, the yuan against the dollar yesterday on the inquiry system, a substantial 495 basis points in diving, the largest decline since the foreign exchange reform. Yesterday the central bank data showed on December 1 of RMB against the U.S. dollar 6.8505 U.S. newspaper, the department in August to its lowest level in the previous session sharply lower than the 156 basis points, the biggest decline for the past few months. Some experts point out that the substantial depreciation of the yuan, out of the "capital growth", the yuan is currently being ushered in a most favorable time for depreciation, as yesterday, the depreciation of the "very good, very correct." Interpretation 1: the devaluation of security is to increase Since by the end of August, the renminbi stable against the U.S. dollar exchange rate, the benchmark price within a narrow range around 6.83 fluctuations. As a result, the yuan yesterday, down 156 basis points in major U.S. and foreign exchange than analysts expected. BNP Paribas in the short-term interest rates and foreign exchange products, traders said Qiu Xiaoming, "has been a long time no devaluation of the renminbi," but last week since the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate has now signs. Last Thursday, the RMB exchange rate depreciation of the U.S. 20 basis points last Friday, the RMB exchange rate depreciation of the U.S. than in the previous 57 basis points. Qiu Xiaoming of the view that the devaluation of the yuan is the main stimulus for economic growth considerations. In the first half of this year, the yuan has risen 6.6 percent, but in the second half of Hong tune with the anti-inflation focus from security to increase the speed of the appreciation of the renminbi has obviously slowed down. Societe Generale chief economist at the Center operating funds, political commissar of the Lu said that the second half of the year so far, only appreciation of the yuan against the dollar 0.4 percent, mainly due to growth in security management have been in control of the speed of the appreciation of the yuan and maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate. Central China University of Finance and Banking Research Center Director Guo Tian Yong yesterday to this reporter's interview, also said that the emergence of a moderate depreciation of the renminbi is conducive to the domestic economy. However, the adoption of the devaluation of the yuan to boost exports of the way, Tian Yong, Guo pointed out that foreign demand is declining, in this way in the current "effect will not be very good." Reading 2: depreciation is a test Earlier this month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson will attend the fifth China-US strategic economic dialogue. In this context, the yuan suddenly down, whether or not any profound meaning? Haitong Securities senior analyst macro-Yong said that the current international financial markets have stabilized, so that the management of the substantial depreciation of the yuan move, the United States should be a test. At the same time, Chen Yong said that the devaluation of the remains to be seen whether the trend, but "the continued substantial devalue the renminbi may not be." Qiu Xiaoming also of the view that the devaluation of the Renminbi will continue depends on market response, "I believe in the coming week should determine whether the trend of the formation." "Before this, the central bank sharply cut interest rates 108 basis points in the short term will not be large rate cut, growth in security tool to be transferred to the exchange rate policy." Qiu Xiaoming said. Interpretation 3: devaluation of the very good right "This is very good, very correct." Yesterday for the RMB exchange rate diving, Lu made political commissar of the evaluation of the case, he believed that "the devaluation of the Renminbi, must continue." Lu said that the political commissar, the present situation, the devaluation of the Renminbi is facing a very good opportunity to be "one of the few to seize the time, as soon as possible devaluation." Lu said the political commissar from the international factors, in the second half of the RMB revaluation does not have the basic, but "no one has to use the revaluation of the RMB Chinese pressure", such as the Sino-US strategic economic dialogue on the question of the RMB exchange rate is not the focus of "Paulson added outgoing, he talks not of the RMB exchange rate issue." In addition, domestic security and the future economic growth of the domestic economy or face anti-deflation, which also requires the devaluation of the yuan, Lu said that the political commissar, as the devaluation of the yuan would trigger a capital outflow of the problem, not a long time because of the RMB has appreciated, " Yaopao of foreign capital has been run, do not have the run of the Pao Bule. " "Exchange rate policy should take the initiative and seize the first half of next year before the favorable opportunity to continue the devaluation of go on." Another industry that the market began to feel that China's economic situation than originally expected to be severe, which may allow the central bank is expected to devalue the Renminbi. Earlier, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also said that does not rule out allowing the devaluation of the Renminbi.