2009年1月19日星期一

China's 25 provincial GDP fell an average of 2.02%

From 25 provinces in 2009 GDP target, the difficult situation even worse than in 2008

Both the developed economies, emerging economies, or resource-based economies, the current economic recession is a real sense of the global recession.



The same is true for China, both the coastal provinces, the central and western regions or provinces, autonomous regions, energy resources, both in the event of economic downturn, this is a real sense of national economic difficulties.

At present, the provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) is being held two sessions, meetings have been held in 25 provinces, the provinces in his government work report in 2008 published the preliminary statistics of economic growth, and announced in 2009 the economic growth targets.

The author Statistics found that the preliminary statistical data has been published for 25 provinces, 22 provinces in 2007 than the GDP growth rate declined, a province with the same in 2007, two provincial high growth rate than 2007. Simple arithmetic calculation, 25 provincial GDP fell an average of 2.02 percentage points.

In addition, 25 provinces released by the breakdown of 2009 economic growth target, although in more than 8 percent, but 25 provinces do not have a goal established by the growth of more than 2008 high, only three provinces with the growth target for 2008 unchanged, and the remaining 22 the objectives of the province in 2008 than the growth rate low. Accumulated, the 25 provinces in 2009 the GDP growth target to reach the average fell 2.05 percentage point, which is even lower than in 2008 more serious decline.

These data tell us that the current economic downturn, China is a national decline, unlike some investment bank report points out, is a heavy impact on the eastern coast, the central and western regions less affected or even non-destructive situation.

Category observation data has been published for 25 provinces, Central Province, were all down 5, arithmetic average fell 1.92 percentage points; western figures of 10 provinces, autonomous regions, only the growth rate of Shaanxi Province in 2007 faster than the 0.6 percent, Qinghai and 2007 rate unchanged, other 8 provinces decreased, the average counts down 2.16 percentage points.

Not only that, but local governments in 2009 on the goals and expectations, showing that the central and western regions by the immense pressure. For example, data published in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hainan four provinces and cities, the growth rate in 2008 fell arithmetic average of 3.65 percentage points, and the expected decline in 2009 an average of only 1.45 percentage points. However, the central and western regions is different, 15 central and western provinces and autonomous regions in 2008 fell 1.75 percentage points on average, but is expected to decline in 2009 was an average of 2.11 percentage points. In other words, the central and western regions over the southeast coastal economic situation even more optimistic, perhaps because of, the central and western regions over-reliance on heavy industry, investment and other economic growth mode, and the southeast coast of urbanization can do more in exploring the basis of domestic demand and the tertiary industry growth potential.

But it is worth noting that, in China's statistical system, local statistical data regardless of the total GDP or growth, compared with the national GDP data have overestimated the larger, so simple data from the local provinces and municipalities can not determine the national economic specific data, but local data can help us better determine the trend.

For example, in the recent amendments to the National Bureau of Statistics before the 2007 national GDP is the total 24.66 trillion yuan, while the 31 provinces, autonomous regions statistical bulletin published by Canadian GDP data is always 27.36 trillion yuan, exceeding the 2.7 trillion yuan. Recently, the National in 2007 on the revised GDP data to 25.73 trillion yuan, but also lower than the provincial data accumulated 1.63 trillion yuan. In the GDP growth rate, the amendment before the National Bureau of Statistics released by the national GDP growth rate is 11.4 percent, but 31 provinces and autonomous regions nationwide provincial GDP growth rate of 11.4 percent in all above the lowest 12% of Xinjiang Autonomous Region, even on Amendment to 13%, the local publication of the growth rate is only 8 less than 13% of the province.

Is generally believed that the country's National Bureau of Statistics data and provinces and autonomous regions do not correspond to the accumulated data, the reasons for the statistical method is not only technically, means, and to repeat the question of statistics, there are places too much importance on the GDP growth rate to GDP for the political achievements, such as institutional issues .

These technologies or institutional reasons has not disappeared, but so far, 25 provinces reported lower in 2008, 2009 GDP growth data and goals, not only told us in 2008 the fact that national economic difficulties, but also notice the Chinese economy in 2009 will face a more severe situation.

From the current 25 provinces enacted in 2009 economic growth target, the arithmetic average, only 10% compared to this round of economic growth peak in 2007, when 31 provinces and even count the average growth rate reached 14.05 percent.

For individual provinces, such as coastal areas of Fujian Province, in 2007 GDP growth of 15.1 percent, in 2008 growth of 13 percent to preliminary statistics, down 2.1 percentage points in 2009 goal is 10 percent, continued to decline by 3 percentage points. Hubei Province in central region, 14.5 percent growth in 2007, 2008 growth of 13 percent to preliminary statistics, in 2009 growth target is 10 percent, continuous decline of 1.5 and 3 percentage points. The western region of Inner Mongolia, 19 percent growth in 2007, 2008 growth of 17.5% to preliminary statistics, in 2009 growth goal of 13 percent, respectively, down 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points. In addition, Guizhou, Shanxi clear in 2009 economic growth target is 8 percent.

Also needs to be emphasized is that all provinces, regions, published in 2009 economic growth target, or in anticipation of large scale investment in the foundation. From the regional economy have fallen sharply, and the future outlook is not optimistic, we can Humble Opinion on the overall situation of China's economic difficulties.

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