Experts predict that China's economic development: after a year back on track
At present, the depth is spread as an international financial crisis sweeping the globe, but also affects China's economy sensitive nerve. How the crisis will have much impact on China's economy? 4 trillion of the newly introduced "expand domestic demand and growth in insurance," when it plans to show the real effect? Recently, the State Information Center, chief economist Fan, director of economic forecasting in the "market" in an exclusive interview that year, China's economy will be back on track. "Market": At present, the global financial crisis, the impact is still deepening, from a historical point of view, how should the "definition" of the crisis? Fan: In economics, two consecutive quarters of negative growth, economic recession. According to the data released, Europe, Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the United States has been going on for three quarters and is expected in the fourth quarter of negative growth rate even more. Europe, the United States, Japan and the world's three major economies at the same time fall into negative growth, which no precedent in history. As a result, more and more people are forming a consensus in the world today is faced since World War II, one of its worst economic recession, or even develop into a recession or economic crisis. "Market": In that case, whether the crisis would bring my little affected? China's current economic situation, like how? Fan: China's economy, can be said to be experiencing the most severe since the reform and opening-up of external shocks, but the impact was significantly larger than anticipated. Exports, on the surface, we use U.S. dollars to calculate the total export growth rate remained low, but if the factors renminbi revaluation taken into account, as well as the import and export prices rising inflation taken into account, our actual export Container used to measure, this is the single-digit growth. Yantian Port container throughput this year has been negative growth. The global spread of financial crisis, China's real economy most affected. In September, China's generating capacity was increased by only 3.4 percent over the same period last year dropped 9 percent increase. At that time, that is because the Olympic period to take a number of restrictive measures. However, in October, China's power generation experienced negative growth in industrial added value growth rate further dropped to 8.4 percent, the overall economic momentum of rapid decline has been formed. Enterprises are also dropping. In the third quarter, there have been a lot of industry-wide loss of industry, such as iron and steel, nonferrous metal, and so on, there have been "your bread than wheat." Is the higher price of iron ore, steel prices fell sharply, the country's average per tonne of steel 1200 loss of money; electrolytic aluminum per ton on average a loss of money to 4000, 5000 electrolytic copper loss of money. Financial income was also reduced. China in the first half of fiscal revenue increased by 33.3 percent, but in September to 3.1 percent next is the only place in which the central government for the first time negative growth. In October, the central and local governments combined negative growth of 0.3 percent. Emergence of such a large area of negative growth in fiscal revenue in the reform and opening up are rare. "Market": In order to achieve the economic "soft landing", the state issued a series of rapid expansion of domestic demand growth in security measures, launched a plan to invest 4 trillion, how do you evaluate these measures? Fan: Despite the international financial crisis on China's impact far beyond the expected, but it should be said, our response to this crisis as early as knowledge, quick hands. Central showed the 10 major initiatives to expand domestic demand, 4 trillion of investment, far more than many people expected. From the expansion of investment, the Asian financial crisis to focus on the positive financial and economic policy, the Government is mainly focused on doing big things, the allocation of resources by the state, engage in a lot of government bonds; and this is walking on two legs, together with a transformation of value-added tax The tax cuts. The purpose of business is upgrading equipment, expanding investment to give financial incentives to mobilize the enthusiasm of business investment through market allocation of resources to improve the efficiency of investment. In fact, the expansion of domestic demand, the most fundamental is to expand consumption demand. We should clearly central to expand consumer demand and adjust the income distribution relations between the combined meaning is to say, to get people dare to spend, first of all, the Government should have the courage to adjust the government, enterprises and residents in three areas of the distribution relationship. 30 years of reform and opening up, the income of urban and rural residents below the long-term GDP growth. In the past talk about investment, consumption, export, "Troika", but said it was actually "Ma Jia Zhuang 2 a thin donkey" and this is why the CPC Central Committee and State Council decided to tackle the problem at the root. In addition, our fiscal policy and monetary policy to achieve the double of the expansionist policy, which shows that our policy has to start early to deal with more difficult in the future. "The market": the expansion of consumer demand, we have taken concrete measures? Fan: foreign crisis, layoffs and salary cuts are one after another, China is the opposite. Human Resources and Social Security request to help businesses tide over their difficulties, the stability of the current employment situation as a top priority. First of all requirements of state-owned enterprises should take the lead in no layoffs, to recruit new employees to give policy support. The fiscal policy has also made clear to raise their income, the level of pensions for retirees, urban and rural population, low levels of subsidy and so on, are meant to the people by increasing the revenue to promote consumption. "The market": the current business difficulties will continue for how long? China's economy will be back on track? Fan: Right now, some business investment may be expected to become negative by the optimism, there is the possibility of experiencing cash flow difficulties, some of the industry in a wide range of a loss, they might slow down the expansion of new projects. However, the enterprise, is now an investment cost of the minimum period is not only a very low cost of capital, raw materials and low prices. The situation in the future, we have seen an unprecedented impact on the other hand, it should be noted that the policy of expanding domestic demand unprecedented intensity. According to our forecasts, this year's fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, China's economy is still in a decline in the process of inertia, but as long as the current central policy in place, in the second half of next year China's economy can be stabilized or even rebound. By 2010, no matter how bad the world economy, we only rely on domestic demand and domestic investment and consumption, China's economy will be able to return to the normal operation of the track. In fact, the so-called crisis, "danger" and "opportunity" for China, this is also the first time we speed up the upgrading of the international economy, the status of a rare opportunity.