China Central Economic Work Conference Outlook: 2009 to ensure that the 8 percent growth target

The annual Central Economic Work Conference is about to convene the meeting in 2009 for the economic work set the tone for the final. It is foreseeable that the international financial crisis and a sharp decline in domestic economic background, the "capital growth and development" There is no suspense in this year's central economic work conference theme. The recently held "2009 economic work," the Politburo meeting, a clear priority for the next year "to maintain stable and rapid economic development." The meeting was about to the outside world as a central economic work meeting "will be prepared." Informed sources have disclosed that next year's economic work will be to secure 8 percent growth target. In fact, the general in the central economic work conference set the tone for the macro-economic policies, has been to advance, that is, fiscal policy from "stable" to "positive" monetary policy from "tight" to "moderate liberal." Macro-control policies to advance To enter in October, it seems that things are moving in a worse direction. U.S. loan crisis that began at the start of the international financial tsunami to speed up the erosion of the real economy, the global economy into recession, the domestic economic environment also deteriorating, increasingly pessimistic atmosphere. In the recently held a press conference, Mu Hong, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission call a spade a spade, "since the third quarter of this year, the international economic and financial situation to deteriorate sharply, the financial crisis gathered greater momentum and to accelerate the spread of the real economy, China's economy Also been seriously affected. " Mu Hong expression is not alarmist, the latest released in October a series of major economic indicators provide strong evidence: in October of this year, the industrial added value increased by only 8.2 percent, after the Chinese New Year out in the 7-year low; Power Growth Year-on-year negative growth rate of 4% since May 1998 for the first time since the negative growth; 70 large and medium-sized cities than in Central prices fell 0.3 percent, marking the largest decline in history; China actually used foreign investment (FDI) fell 2.02 percent for this year Since the first negative growth rate; financial income for the first time since 1996, a negative growth. CICC, in its report made it clear that China in October of the major economic indicators of emerging in a series of "first time", shows that China's economic decline is accelerating. The source told reporters, and by the main economic indicators at the same time announced in October has been a sharp fall in GDP growth to 7%. The previous data show that this year's third quarter year-on-year GDP growth of 9%. "The situation changes as a direct result of a State Council executive meeting the urgent deployment of a new macro-policy." November 5, Premier Wen Jiabao chaired a State Council executive meeting, proposed to the current proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy, further expanding domestic demand and promote economic growth in the ten measures ( "10 States"), as well as Financial stimulate the economy, "4000000000000", the release of a macro-control policy to a clear signal. Industry experts pointed out that the fiscal policy from "stable" to "positive" changes in monetary policy from "tight" to "moderate liberal," a comprehensive restructuring, on the one hand, implied that China's economy is rapidly declining trend, on the other hand Also made it clear that transmission of the "capital growth" of the macro-control tone. "Eight security," Defense How to understand the "capital growth"? Experts said that to quantify the specific indicators, is to "protect-year GDP growth of 8%." Adjustment from a series of macro-control policy point of view, the purpose is very clear that the efforts to maintain stable and rapid economic development. From the previous government work report, we can see that stable and rapid economic development is the corresponding annual GDP growth of 8%. The guess from the People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the position a few days ago has been confirmed in part. Zhou Xiaochuan at the G-20 central bank governors meeting of finance ministers, have publicly stated that China's economic growth rate next year will be about 8-9 percent between. The source also told reporters that in 2009 government work report, economic growth will continue to be set at 8%. That being the case, economic growth, "the eight security," the goal is clear. According to China's macro-economic speed downlink solely with the economic growth of 8 percent annual growth rate of completion of the apparently impossible goal. BNP Paribas Peregrine director and deputy general manager Chen Xingdong, chief economist of the view that in 2009 China's export growth may be zero. In this case, support from domestic demand, China's economic growth rate is from 5.5 to 6.5 percent. CICC, in its report calculations account: the developed countries into recession in 2009 will allow the export of economic growth to zero degrees, the actual growth rate of urban fixed asset investment is expected to be 10% of the slowdown to 8.5% The final consumption rate corresponding to the retail community will be the actual growth rate fell to 11%. As a result, in 2009 endogenous economic growth around 6%. It is clear that you want to achieve, "the eight security" targets, macro-control policy needs to play a bigger role.
4000000000000-job During the introduction of the program to stimulate the economy, 4 trillion of the most high-profile investment plans. However, the suspense also arise from this, 4 trillion yuan of investment plans can really live up to expectations, and its commitment to "protect eight" heavy responsibility, contribution to GDP to 2 percentage points it? For this issue, some experts in the industry appears to be more cautious. National Development and Reform Commission's economic situation, said Wang Xiaoguang, director of research, whether the current 4 trillion to how much is still difficult to estimate the effect. Therefore, China's investment multiplier is not very clear, so do not count in the end be able to pull out the number of investment for economic growth. The more industry experts and overseas to vote on this trip are much more optimistic. State Council Development Research Center of the macro-economic Zhang Liqun, a research fellow of the view that China's investment in fixed assets last year, the total size of 13,700,000,000,000 yuan. "The only time more than two years of the new arrangements for the investment would be about 4 trillion yuan, pulling effect on the economy will be very clear." Financial scientific director of the Institute of the Ministry of Finance, said Jia Kang, in accordance with past experience, in 1998 introduced a proactive fiscal policy on GDP growth per annum from 1.5 to 2 percentage points. This is a proactive fiscal policy to the economic growth rate will be about the same level. To stimulate the economy after the release program, many overseas firms have voted to maintain or increase on 2009 China's economic growth forecast. Merrill Lynch issued a report that the program will stimulate the Chinese GDP by about 3 percentage points contribution to the maintenance of 2009 on China's economic growth forecast of 8.6 percent. Morgan Stanley economist Wang Si Shi predicted to stimulate the economy through the next year, China may achieve 8-9 percent economic growth. JP Morgan chief economist Frank Gong believes that Chinese GDP growth rate in 2009 will more than likely before they forecast 8.1 percent. Departments at all levels in action Active fiscal policy and the 4 trillion to stimulate the economy through a program published in various departments and local governments have started to take action. From the various provinces and cities have announced investment plans of view, with a total investment of around has been more than 18,000,000,000,000, far exceeding the targets 4000000000000. Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of the letter, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Human Resources Department of Social Security and other departments in the 19-introduction of a number of measures, including Tingzheng 100 administrative fees to arrange 5.1 billion to support small and medium enterprises, increase the threshold Compensation standards, improve the basic old-age pensions of retirees, and promote the industrialization of TD-SCDMA, with a view to promoting business investment and stimulating consumption. I understand that the more the economy to promote long-term development of the consumer pull programs are in the pipeline. Industry experts point out that simply relying on the traditional investment-led model of economic growth, there are a lot of disadvantages, it is bound to be difficult. The distribution pattern and readjust the economic structure and establish a true leader must be less than the economic growth mode is the only guarantee of long-term plan for economic development. The recently held "2009 economic work," the Politburo meeting, in the formulation of macroeconomic policy next year, also stressed the need to change the way of economic development, structural adjustment, as well as innovative systems and mechanisms. Macro-economic or bottom of the second quarter next year While most economists for next year's economic growth to be optimistic about, but to stimulate the economy out of the program is already marked the macro-economic "bottom"? The answer is clearly no. Zhang pointed out that the effect of the policy will take some time. In 2009, China's economy will be presented before the high-low after the trend in the second quarter, the economic growth rate will gradually be increased. Managing Director of JP Morgan Chase, President of the Chinese market, Li Jing has the same view. In her view, to invest 4 trillion to stimulate the economy in the next six months after beginning to show results in real terms, therefore, China's real economy will continue to decline in the second quarter of next year, starting in the third quarter from the signs of a recovery. CICC was also pointed out that in view of the many projects to the real implementation of the investment plans of 4 trillion economy, the pulling effect to begin to be felt until the second half of next year. The second half of this year than in the first half of next year's economic performance is worse. Wang Xiaoguang in view, the next two years the situation may be even more severe. In his view, economic growth has slowed this year, is undergoing a cyclical adjustment phase. The impact of the adjustment will appear in 2009, and 2010 will be the most severe. Distribution of economic restructuring Ten years ago, compared to the Asian financial crisis period to take an active fiscal policy, the introduction of the 4 trillion, "Bao growth" measures have been fundamentally different. Recalling the 1998 introduction of the proactive fiscal policy, mainly through the issuance of state treasury bonds for infrastructure, public works construction investment. However, investment in industries associated with a smaller industry, the industry can not expand rapidly expanding industry as a whole drive. And building infrastructure projects cycle is longer, slower recovery of funds, private investment and consumption demand effect is not obvious. In the economic stimulus package, 4 trillion of funds into the government revealed the layout of economic restructuring, upgrade the industrial structure of care and thought. In addition to speed up the railways, highways and airports and other major infrastructure construction, health, culture and education, ecological environment, independent innovation and structural adjustment, rural infrastructure and so on, the future direction of the focus of financial investment. For the above-mentioned measures, Wang Xiaoguang pointed out that this is not for short-term capital growth, not for the sake of keeping high-speed growth, China's economic security is a major long-term sustainable development and promote China's economic competitiveness. As a result, the adjustment is more opportunity. Industry experts said that in the next two years, investment will become China's economic growth of the biggest bright spot, and eventually to the domestic demand to promote change. With this program to stimulate the economy, China's economy will complete the structural adjustment of industries to upgrade for the next round of stable and rapid economic growth has laid a good foundation.