China Import and Export in November for the first time in 7 years of negative growth record high trade surplus
China's General Administration of Customs released in November import and export merchandise trade data showed that Chinese import and export volume in November Jingxian negative growth, exports fell 2.2 percent, while imports dropped 17.9 percent. China has a recent negative growth in exports in June 2001. The data also showed that China's trade surplus in November was 40,090,000,000 U.S. dollars, more than just hit an all-time high in October of 35,240,000,000 U.S. dollars. This is also China's trade surplus for 4 months reaching record highs. "21st Century Business Herald" article published on the 6th of that article, into a substantial volume of diving so that decision-making rather surprised, the General Administration of Customs reported to the central data frequency has been increased from once every 10 days for adjustment once a day . Mainly due to lower export quotations? The source said the above-mentioned economic and trade system did not expect export growth in a short span of one month will be completely reversed, "Although November is expected to import and export growth will slow down, no one thought would be a substantial fall into negative range. " He disclosed that Shanghai, Nanjing and other major gateway to report preliminary data "with large numbers reflect the trend." The General Administration of Customs announced in mid-November showed that Chinese exports in October of the month 128,330,000,000 U.S. dollars, up 19.2 percent; imports of 93,090,000,000 U.S. dollars, an increase of 15.6 percent. The sources said the technical level, in November last year, Jin, a relatively high level of exports, imports and exports in November this year showed a negative growth of one of the factors. Last November, China's import and export growth of 25.3 percent, 22.8 percent. However, the State Information Center research fellow at the Economic Forecast Department ZHANG Yong-jun on December 5 said that this is not sufficient to explain why the import and export growth to such a large decline in the rate. Slowdown in external demand is considered to be one of the factors driving down exports. ZHANG Yong-jun said that taking into account the export orders from the declaration to the time difference between the settlement, in November of this year, with exports down in the second quarter of China's major trading partners, negative economic growth. In the second quarter of this year, Japan previous quarter GDP fell by 0.6 percent in the euro zone than the quarter also declined by 0.2 percent. December 1, the National Logistics Information Center released data show that in November China manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), only 38.8 percent, the index hit a new low since the establishment. In addition, new export orders index fell a huge 12.4 percent drop the previous month. The two forward-looking index shows that China's export growth is not optimistic. Zhang Yongjun believe that the price factor may be the main cause of negative growth in exports. By the financial crisis, even if the export enterprises have not reduced the volume of orders, the clearing price is very likely to reduce. The inference to be confirmed in the enterprise. Guangdong, a major exporter of toys on December 5, the company has had in recent months, little change in exports, but exports to Europe and the United States market has been down 10% -20%. He said the financial crisis in the high-end products significantly impact, low-grade toys are affected is limited, "many companies are adjusting the structure of export products." He predicted next year's exports will remain unchanged, but the export volume and profit may fall more than 30%. Guangdong Silk Group, said Li Yong, deputy general manager of the company in recent months, orders for Europe and the United States 3-4 as a sharp drop in the same period last year, "the beginning of this year's 8 dollars a pair of jeans on the Guangzhou Trade Fair price to 4.5 U.S. dollars to no one." Primary commodities price slump caused by a slowdown of imports The slowdown in imports in October have been signs. Of the month in October, China imported 15.6 percent year-on-year growth for more than September's 21.3 percent slump. Orient Securities analyst Yu-Ming Feng macro strategy on December 4 that the shrinking of processing trade imports a great blow. So far this year, processing trade export growth continued to slow down, imports are down to follow. And in a single month in October, resulting from the processing trade imports to occupy 36% of the total imports. The source disclosed that the above-mentioned categories of data to prove this thesis - 11 single month of China's processing trade exports fell by 11.8 percent year-on-year, while imports dropped as much as 24.8 percent! The general trade exports increased by 4.7 percent, while imports fell by 13%. China WTO Research executive director Zhou Jian, said on December 5, the processing trade hit fell, with part of the region to promote local industrial structure upgrade to do with. The prices of primary products import growth rate is down one of the reasons why. Since September, to occupy our country imports nearly 30% of the total value of primary products, the prices of almost all-round experience "cut", or more than 50% of the oil and coal products has an obvious slowdown in domestic demand, the situation has been in short supply in the first half of Completely reversed. Against this backdrop, the adoption of the original imports of primary products to offset the impact of the appreciation of the yuan trade enterprises, imports are increasing the risk of their wait-and-see sentiment strong, at home and abroad has been the emergence of large-scale breach of contract. Guangdong said that the above-mentioned toy exporters, companies in recent months, the import volume has dropped more than half of the "domestic buyers would rather the loss of 20% of the deposit, they were reluctant to implement earlier agreements." Guangdong College of the financial restructuring of China's financial and Lei Lu, director of the Development Research Center on December 5 said that according to primary products imports accounted for 30% of the total value of imports is estimated that this type of commodity prices decline if more than 60% of imports in the absence of other types of support growth Premise, the import growth rate of decrease will reach 18%. Countermeasures: Chinese enterprises to survive Negative growth in import and export a lot of people have memories of the past is many years old. Zhang Yongjun show that the last of China's export growth is negative in June 2001 (-0.6%), was due to the IT bubble caused a recession in the U.S. economy to drag on China's exports, but it is only a slight negative growth in a single month. Zhang Yongjun judge, in November a negative growth of import and export data is not at the bottom of the "follow-up to a few months will slow down all import and export, and negative growth situation may continue for months." He estimated that if the November and December are in accordance with the negative export growth rate of 2%, then this year's export growth rate of about 18%, 20% lower than the policy bottom line. And in 2009, the situation may be more severe. He expects negative growth in the first half of next year still die hard. The judge based on the support of the United States in the third quarter of the consumption chain has been a negative growth of 3.7 percent, lower than market expectations. International Monetary Fund on November 24 issued forecasts that the United States, the euro zone, Japan may be 0.7 percent, 0.5 percent, 0.2 percent negative growth. And in 2007, the three major markets of China's total exports to occupy 63% of the total (Hong Kong re-factor). Zhou Jian expects full year 2008 export growth may be lower than 15%, negative growth will continue into the second quarter of next year. 11, 12 month government raised a large number of export tax rebate rate, but taking into account the effect of the policy lag, he is expected in the second quarter after the situation will turn for the better. "If there is adequate policy support, export growth next year is likely close to 10%." Zhou Jian believes that the current critical situation, the devaluation of the Renminbi, commodities continue to increase the export tax rebate rate are operational, "did not rule out the Spring Festival after the third round of tax rebate may increase." In fact, the recent foreign exchange market, the yuan has hit four consecutive days and the fluctuations in the minimum range, said Zhang Yongjun, if the export situation continues to worsen, the market for the expected devaluation of the Renminbi may be more strongly. Other sources, including the Electrical and Mechanical Services Association, several chambers of commerce are calling for more policies to stimulate exports, in addition to the Commerce Department turned over to the policy adjustment, the Chamber of Commerce have recently been arranged directly with the central bank big export, the Ministry of Finance and the State Council Policy Research Office of the discussion about who actively seek policy support. He said the labor-intensive industry, mechanical and electrical industries are suggestions that the Government continue to raise the export tax rebate rate, hoping to restore in full the 17% tax rebate. Lei Lu, however that the tax rebate rate increase or the devaluation of the Renminbi have been unable to save the export, "the old pattern of growth has come to an end, to change the growth mode of the time." If you continue to adopt policies to stimulate exports, domestic production capacity could lead to sustained surplus, which led to deflation. In his view, tax cuts, increased incomes and stimulate consumption, such as the total amount of the policy of expanding domestic demand should rise higher than the export tax rebate policy, and other structures, "as long as short-term but also in the throes of the bear within the framework." Some analysts have pointed out that lower export growth may lead to deflation. China in the past two deflation occurred during the Asian financial crisis and after the Nasdaq bubble burst. The export of deflation is always accompanied by a significant contraction.